S - REDD and REDD+

199X Trexler_Forestry and Land Use Change in the AIJ Pilot Phase

200X CCFM_A Framework for Forest Management Offset Protocols

200X Lyman_Better get it right the first time How CARBs offset invalidation provisions promote additionality in the California carbon market

200X Sugiyama_Reconciling the Design of CDM with Inborn Paradox of Additionality

200X Trexler U.S. Market Additionality Update

1989 Trexler_Forestry and Climate Change_Analysis of the Guatemala Agroforestry Project

1991 Swisher_Cost and performance of CO2 storage in forestry projects

1994 Trexler_Keeping it Green- Tropical Forestry Opportunities to Mitigate Climate Change

1997 van Kooten_Conceptual issues related to carbon sequestration - Uncertainty and time $$

1998 Chomitz_Baselines for GHG Reductions Problems Precedents Solutions

1998 Trexler and Associates_Biotic Offsets Assessment Workshop for EPA

1999 Meyers_Additionality of Emissions Reductions From CDM Projects

1999 Trexler and Associates_Benchmarking the Additionality of Land Use Change and Forestry Mitigation Projects

1999 Trexler and Associates_Forestry sector benchmarking - task 1

1999 Trexler and Associates_Forestry sector benchmarking - task 2 - applying the hypotheses

1999 Trexler and Associates_Forestry sector benchmarking - task 3 - issues and conclusions

2000 Chomitz_Evaluating Carbon Offsets from Forestry and Energy Projects

2000 IPCC Special Report on AFOLU

2000 Trexler and Associates_The Impact of Alternative Additionality Screens on the Magnitude of CER Generation Under the CDM

2000 Williams_Carbon Sequestration: An Overview of the Issues

2001 Bode_Avoiding perverse effects of baseline and investment additionality determination in renewable energy projects

2001 Fearnside_Why a 10-Year Time Horizon Should be UIsed

2002 Liepa_Greenhouse Gas Offsets: An Introduction to Core Elements

2002 Schwarze_Understanding and Managing Leakage in Forest-Based GHG Mitigation Projects

2002 Subak_Forest certification eligibility as a screen for CDM sinks projects $$

2003 Broekhoff_How Additionality Could Drive the Market

2003 Dutschke_Development Aid and the CDM - How to interpret Financial Additionality

2003 Greiner_Defining Investment Additionality for CDM Project Practical Approaches

2003 Trexler and Associates_An Introduction to the Additionality and Financial Additionality Debates

2003 Trexler_Additionality Finding the Problem and a Solution PPT

2003 Trexler_Market Perspectives on the CDM Are we on the Right Track

2004 Locatelli_Accounting methods for carbon credits Impacts on the minimum area of forestry projects under the CDM

2005 Fischer_Project-based mechanisms for emissions reductions Balancing trade-offs with baselines

2005 IETA_IETA Position Paper on Additionality

2005 Kartha_Market penetration metrics tools for additionality assessment $$

2006 Trexler RECs and Offsets in Carbon Markets PPT

2006 Trexler_A Statistically Driven Approach to Offset-Based GHG Additionality Determinations - What Can We Learn?

2006 Trexler_Assessing the Feasibility of the Sector List Approach to Additionality Policy

2006 Trexler_Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading, Environment Integrity and Project-Based Additionality - A Three-Legged Stool

2007 Bettelheim_Carbon Markets: the Forest Dimension

2007 EcoSec_How to ensure we sell real reductions PPT

2008 Beane_Forest Carbon Offsets: A Scorecard for Evaluating Project Quality

2008 Bloomgarden_Another Look at Additionality

2008 Broekhoff_Alternative Approaches to Additionality

2008 Diamant_Overview of Different Approaches for Demonstrating Additionality

2008 Gillenwater_Redefining RECs Part 1 Untangling attributes and offsets

2008 Gillenwater_Redefining RECs Part 2 Untangling certificates and emission markets

2008 Gunn_Forest Carbon Offsets: A Scorecard for Evaluating Offset Quality PPT

2008 Hession_Additionality in the CDM PPT

2008 Hunt_The hidden social costs of forestry offsets

2008 Hurteau_Carbon protection and fire risk reduction $$

2008 LeFranc_Applying a Performance Standard Approach to Determine Additionality

2008 Merger_Comparison of Carbon Offset Standards for Climate Forestation Projects

2008 Neef_Why Forestry Markets Have Been so Slow PPT

2008 Telnes_Additionality Foundations Practicality

2008 Trexler_Additionality Scoring System_AWMA PPT

2008 Trexler_What is an Offset

2008 Tuerk_The role of land-based offsets in Emissions Trading Systems - Key design aspects and considerations for linking

2009 Chistyakova_Carbon Markets, Forestry, and REDD USA

2009 COI_Maintaining Carbon Market Integrity: Why RECs are not Offsets

2009 Ecosystem Marketplace_State of Forest Carbon Markets: Taking Root and Branching Out

2009 Foley_Extending rotation age for carbon sequestration: A cross-protocol comparison of North American forest offsets

2009 Griscom_Sensitivity of amounts and distribution of tropical forest carbon credits depending on baseline rules

2009 Lussier Overview of Legal Requirements for Successful Forest Carbon Offset Projects

2009 Marland_Trading permanent and temporary carbon emissions credits $$

2009 Razak_Afforestation and reforestation with the CDM Potentials problems and future directions $$

2009 Trexler Additionality the Key Challenge PPT

2009 Trexler_Additionality The Key Challenge in Designing Project Based Mitigation Programs

2009 Yong_Technical Paper - Investment Additionality in the CDM

2010 Alexeew_An analysis of the relationship between the additionality of CDM projects and their contribution to sustainable development $$

2010 Carpenter_Implementation of biological sequestration offset in carbon reduction policy questions for domestic offsets

2010 Clarke_The over the counter market for forest carbon offsets An insight into pricing in a market without common price signals $$

2010 Espejo Introduction to AFOLU projects PPT Show

2010 Lussier_How to link offset forestry projects with the different emissions trading markets

2010 Raymond_Beyond additionality

2010 Sjardin_Innovative financing mechanisms for carbon and forestry projects

2010 Thomas_The Business of Climate Forest Carbon in Perspective PPT

2010 Trexler_Additionality in Flowchart Form

2010 Trexler_The What Why and How of Offsets_Purdue

2010 Trexler_Understanding and Assessing Additionality

2011 Cooley_Managing dependencies in forest offset projects Toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk

2011 Davies_Carbon Analysis of the Proposed Forest Management Regimes on the Elliott State Forest

2011 Gillenwater What is Additionality A Longstanding Problem

2011 Gillenwater What is Additionality Part 2 - A framework for a more precise definition

2011 Gillenwater_What is Additionality? Part 3 - Implications for stacking and unbundling

2011 Huebner_Systematic Weaknesses in Forestry Carbon Offset Protocols

2011 Latta_Simulated effects of mandatory versus voluntary participation in private forest carbon offset markets

2011 Mason_additionality problem with offsets

2011 McFarland_Carbon Reduction Projects and the Concept of Additionality

2011 Okubo_NAMA Crediting How to assess offsets from and additional of policy-based mitigation actions

2011 Olander_Building Forest Carbon Projects Step by Step Overview and Guide

2011 Poudyal_Quality of urban forest carbon credits

2011 Ruthner_Study of the Environmental Integrity of the CDM

2011 Schiermeier_Clean energy credits tarnished

2011 Stadelmann_New and additional to what - Assessing options for baselines to assess climate finance pledges

2011 Yonavjak_Forests for Carbon Exploring Forest Carbon Offsets in the U.S. South

2012 Arriagada_Do Payments for Environmental Services Affect Forest Cover?: A Farm-Level Evaluation from Costa Rica

2012 Deo_Carbon Credits on Private Lands in British Columbia

2012 Galick_Analysis of the production and transaction costs of forest carbon offset projects in the USA

2012 Gillenwater_What is wrong with real carbon offsets $$

2012 Latta_Evaluating the Response of Land Use and Forest Management in Western Oregon to a Carbon Offset Sales Policy PPT

2012 Pacific Carbon Trust_ Project Baseline and Additionality Discussion Document v. 2.0

2012 Schneider_Standardized Baselines in the CDM - Are We on the Right Track?

2012 Siikamaki_Land Use and Forestry Offsets

2012 Stabinsky_Soil Carbon and the Offset Market

2012 van Kooten_Rent Seeking and Smoke and Mirrors Game in the Creation of Carbon Credits: An Example from British Columbia

2013 Ecosystem Marketplace_Covering new ground: state of forest carbon markets

2013 Ehrenstein_The Conditional Sink Counterfactual Display in the Valuation of a Carbon Offsetting Reforestation Project

2013 Gillenwater_Additionality of wind energy investments in the US voluntary green power market $$

2013 Horowitz_Economics of additionality for environmental services from agriculture

2013 Lansing_Not all baselines are created equal - stakeholder perspectives of additionality

2013 Mason_The additionality problem with offsets: Optimal contracts for carbon sequestration in forests

2013 Oliver_Do Carbon Offsets Work? The Role of Forest Manageemtn in GHG Mitigation

2013 Polglase_Potential for forest carbon plantings to offset greenhouse emissions in Australia: economics and constraints to implementation $$

2013 Romero_Economics of forest and forest carbon projects

2013 Trexler_Diagramming Additionality Issues

2013 van Bethem_Scale and transfers in international emissions offset programs

2013 Wagner_Dealing with fixed emissions ceilings in an uncertain future: Offsetting under environmental integrity

2014 Barnes_Additionality, common practice and incentive schemes for the uptake of innovations

2014 Claassen_Additionality in U.S. Agricultural Conservation and Regulatory Offset Programs

2014 HCA_Additionality Guide Fourth Edition

2014 Law_Role of Forest Ecosystems in Climate Change Mitigation

2014 Sim_Options for the Monetization of the Elliott State Forest

2015 Kollmuss_Has Joint Implementation Reduced GHG Emissions Lessons Learned

2015 Trexler_The Carbon Offset 8-Fold Path (draft)

2015 van Kooten_Forest Carbon Offsets Revisited Shedding Light on Darkwoods

2016 Barata_Carbon Credits and Additionality

2016 Cames_How additional is the Clean Development Mechanism

2016 Carmichael_The financial additionality and viability of CDM projects allowing for uncertainty $$

2016 CI_Linking Flight and Forests: The Essential Role of Forests

2016 CRS_Additionality and Renewable Energy Certificates

2016 Ecotrust_A Landowners Guide to Forest Carbon Offsets Credits Incentives

2016 Gren_Policy design for forest carbon sequestration A review of the literature $$

2016 Kelly_Forest offsets and the California compliance market Bringing an abstract ecosystem good to market

2016 Kuriyama_Quantitative Assessment of Certified Emission Reductions from Non-Additional CDM Projects

2016 Lamb_The potential for land sparing to offset greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

2016 Latta_Evaluating land-use and private forest management responses to a potential forest carbon offset

2016 Murray_Incentivizing the Reduction of Pollution at Dairies How to Address Additionality When Multiple Credit Payments are Combined

2016 Powers_The Role of RECs and Additionality

2016 Thamo_Challenges in developing effective policy for soil carbon sequestration perspectives on additionality leakage and permanence $$

2017 Aguilar-Stoen_Better Safe than Sorry? Indigenous Peoples, Carbon Cowboys and the Governance of REDD in the Amazon $$

2017 Chiroleu-Assouline_Designing REDD+ contracts to resolve additionality issues

2017 Kelly_The willingness of non-industrial private forest owners to enter Californias carbon offset market

2017 Latta_Estimating contribution of carbon offset sales programs PPT

2017 Liu_Baseline manipulation in voluntary carbon offset programs

2017 Marland_Forest Offset Protocol

2017 Marland_Understanding and Analysis: The California Air Resources Board Forest Offset Protocol

2017 Ruseva_Additionality and permanence standards in Californias Forest Offset Protocol

2017 St-Laurent_Barriers to the development of forest carbon offsetting: Insights from British Columbia, Canada, $$

2018 Bottazzi_Payment for environmental Self Service Exploring the links between farmers motivation and additionality $$

2018 Campbell_Barriers to achieving additionality in carbon offsets a regulatory risk perspective $$

2018 Gifford_See the Carbon Through the Trees Market Based Climate change Mitigation Forest Carbon Offsets and the Uneven Power of Carbon Accounting

2018 Massarella_REDD+ Hype hope and dissapointment The dynamics of expectations in conservation and development projects $$

2018 Riksrevisjonen_The Office of the Auditor General of Norways Investigation of Norways International Climate and Forest Initiative

2018 Schneider_Crediting Forest-Related Mitigation Under International Carbon Market Mechanisms: A synthesis of environmental integrity risks

2018 Schneider_Environmental integrity of international carbon market mechanisms under the Paris Agreement

2018 van der Gaast_The contribution of forest carbon credit projects to addressing the climate change challenge $$

2018 Wayburn_Forests Climate Policy and Offsets PPT

2019 Chagas_Should forest carbon credits be included in offsetting schemes such as CORSIA

2019 Haya_The California Air Resources Boards US Forest Offset Protocol Underestimates Leakage

2019 Michaelowa_Additionality revisited Guarding the integrity of market mechanisms under the Paris Agreement

2020 CARB_Compliance Offsets Protocol Task Force Initial Draft Recommendations

2020 CMD_Draft Quebec Offset Protocol on Carbon Sequestration Through Afforestation and Reforestation

2020 Gifford_You can’t value what you can’t measure A critical look at forest carbon accounting

2020 Hermville_Reconciling Pretensions and reality The Situation-Ambition Approach for Dynamic Baselines

2020 Phelps_California Carbon Offsets and Working Forest Conservation Easements

2020 West_Overstated carbon emission reductions from voluntary REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon

2021 Ahonen_Safeguarding integrity of market-based cooperation under Article 6 - additionality determination and baseline setting

2021 Badgley_Systematic over-crediting of forest offsets

2021 Badgley_Systematic Over-Crediting in Californias Forest Carbon Offsets Program

2021 Bautista_Science to Commerce A Commercial-Scale Protocol for Carbon Trading Applied to a 28-Year Record of Forest Carbon Monitoring at the Harvard Forest

2021 Michaelowa_Setting crediting baselines under article 6 of the Paris Agreement

2022 Bucholz_Probability-based accounting for carbon in forests to consider wildfire and other stochastic events

2022 Gold Standard_Additionality Under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement

2022 TFCI_Tropical Forest Credit Integrity Guide for Companies

2023 Golmant_A description and initial validation of a dynamic baseline for avoided deforestation projects

2023 Haya_Comprehensive Review of Carbon Quantification by Improved Forest Management Offset Protocols

2023 Haya_Executive Summary Quality Assessment of REDD+ Carbon Credit Projects

2023 Haya_Quality Assessment of REDD+ Carbon Credit Projects

2023 Teo_Uncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets

2023 West_Action needed to make carbon offsets from tropical forest conservation work for climate change mitigation

All additionality tests are trying to answer the same question

2009 Slide - Not All Offsets are Created Equal

2009 Slide - Offset Rules Will Determine Offset Outcomes

Additionality “testing” is a misnomer

Additionality approaches used in various offset standards and programs

Additionality screening has to account for human behaviors, making it more uncertain

Different sectors perform very different when it comes to additionality thresholds

Different sectors perform very differently in terms of “offset confidence”

Discounting the number of offsets tells you nothing about their environmental credibility

Even tests for physical variables like pregnancy are not infallible

Gaming of offset rules will generally increase the likelihood of false positives getting into the offset pool

If you don’t think about false positives, you can’t draw any conclusions about offsets’ environmental integrity

In designing most tests, you can know whether you got it right or wrong. Not so for additionality.

Many of the additionality “proxies” being used have not been empirically validated.

Many physical tests are first evaluated on how they balance false positives and false negatives

Measurement and monitoring cannot substitute for additionality screening

No offset pool can be perfect

Not all offset criteria should be judged equally, including for scoring purposes